Global cotton consumption projected to increase in 2017/18.

Date Posted: 03 Jan, 2018

Recovery continues in cotton production for 2017/18 with a projected 11% growth due to increased area to a projected 25.4 million tons. Following the sharp drop in production in 2015/16, the 2016/17 production recovered by 7% to 23 million tons. Production in the USA for the current season is expected to increase 25% to 4.7 million tons, a 930 thousand increase. India remains the world’s largest producer with 2017/18 production expected to be 6.2 million tons with 8.7% growth. The second largest producer, China, has production currently projected at 5.2 million tons with a 7.1% increase. Pakistan’s production projections for 2017/18 show a 11.5% increase to 1.9 million tons. Production increase in Turkey is estimated to grow 18% to 829,000 tons. Other major cotton producing countries are expected to have positive growth attributed to increased area and yields.

International cotton prices have continued to move upward over the last few months as the season has been underway. From the season low of 77 cents per pound at the start of season, prices are at a season high at the end of this calendar year up to 88 cents per pound. The current season average of 80 cents per pound is lower than the 2016/17 average of 83 cents per pound. With a lower international price from the previous season and the rising price of competing fibres, global consumption is expected to grow. After stagnating in 2016/17, global cotton demand is expected to increase 3% in 2017/18 to 25.2 million tons. Chinese mill use is expected to remain stable at 8.1 million tons, while India and Pakistan are expected to increase 3% and 4% respectively. Consumption in Vietnam is expected to grow 12% to 1.3 million tons. Moderate growth of 2-3% is expected for other major consuming countries of Bangladesh, Turkey and the United States.


WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
               
  2015/16 2016/17 2017/18   2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
          Changes from previous month
  Million Tons   Million Tons
               
Production 21.48 22.99 25.43   0.00 -0.01 -0.31
Consumption 24.18 24.52 25.22   0.00 0.00 0.00
Imports 7.57 8.11 8.35   0.00 -0.05 0.19
Exports 7.55 8.07 8.35   0.00 -0.05 0.19
Ending Stocks 20.26 18.77 18.98   0.02 0.06 -0.25
               
Cotlook A Index* 70 83 74*        

*The price projection for 2017/18 is based on the ending stocks to mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2015/16 (estimate), 2016/17 (estimate) and 2017/18 (projection); on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2016/17 (estimate) and 2017/18 (projection); and on the price projection of 2016/17. The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 68 ct/lb to 83 cts/lb.

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