News
Higher Production, Vigorous Trade Are Expected in the 2021/22 Season
For Immediate Release
Date Posted: 1 October 2021
Executive Summary
Highlights from the October 2021 Cotton This Month for the 2021/22 season include:
Date Posted: 1 October 2021
Executive Summary
Highlights from the October 2021 Cotton This Month for the 2021/22 season include:
- World production is estimated at 25.7 million tonnes
- World consumption is estimated at 25.9 million tonnes
- The trade estimate of 10.29 million tonnes shows that the industry outlook remains positive overall
Higher Production and Vigorous Trade Are Expected in the 2021/22 Season
Although world cotton production is expected to increase by 6% in 2021/22, the estimate of 25.7 million tonnes is still lower than it was pre-pandemic. Australia, Brazil and the USA all expect production to increase, which should offset the declines expected in the world’s top two producers, China and India.
Global consumption is estimated at 25.9 million tonnes, and with ending stocks for 2020/21 having been revised downward to 20 million tonnes, world cotton supply is estimated to be 45.8 million tonnes for the 2021/22 season.
The industry saw some of the highest levels of trade ever in 2020/21, and the estimate of 10.29 million tonnes for the coming season shows that industry sentiment remains positive — especially given the robust levels of retail sales of textiles seen in many developed countries.
Although world cotton production is expected to increase by 6% in 2021/22, the estimate of 25.7 million tonnes is still lower than it was pre-pandemic. Australia, Brazil and the USA all expect production to increase, which should offset the declines expected in the world’s top two producers, China and India.
Global consumption is estimated at 25.9 million tonnes, and with ending stocks for 2020/21 having been revised downward to 20 million tonnes, world cotton supply is estimated to be 45.8 million tonnes for the 2021/22 season.
The industry saw some of the highest levels of trade ever in 2020/21, and the estimate of 10.29 million tonnes for the coming season shows that industry sentiment remains positive — especially given the robust levels of retail sales of textiles seen in many developed countries.
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2021/22 ranges from 82 cents to 127 cents, with a midpoint at 101.60 cents per pound.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 October 2021. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 November 2021.
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Please contact the author, Ms Parkhi Vats, with questions on this report.
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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org, Twitter or LinkedIn.