Higher Consumption and Lower Production Expected to Draw Down Ending Stocks in 2020/21

 

For Immediate Release 
Date Posted: 1 March 2021

 
Executive Summary
 
Highlights from the March 2021 Cotton This Month include:

  • The cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward to 24.5 million tonnes for the 2020/21 season
  • The production forecast has been revised downward
  • As a result, ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 1% to 21.1 tonnes
  • This month, the Secretariat’s price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 75.7 cents per pound


Higher Consumption and Lower Production Expected to Draw Down Ending Stocks in 2020/21

The 2020/21 cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward this month from 24.2 million tonnes to 24.5 million tonnes, and while the projected 7% year-over-year increase isn’t nearly enough to offset the losses caused by the pandemic, it’s expected to outpace production, thus drawing stocks down by the end of the season. Stock levels are expected to drop to 21.1 million tonnes by the end of 2020/21, which would represent a 1% decrease from the previous season.

The Secretariat is projecting an increase in global trade. Both China and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports, the former benefitting from the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton and the latter due to a decrease in domestic production. 

This month, the Secretariat’s price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 75.7 cents per pound. 


Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 March 2021. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 April 2021.

 

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Please contact the author, Ms. Lihan Wei, with questions on this report.

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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.