Global Stocks Expected to Drop by 1% in 2019/20 SeasonFor the fifth season in a row, global stocks are expected to drop in 2019/20, decreasing by 1% to 18 million tonnes. The global reduction is completely due to the 5.5% decline in China’s warehouses to 8.4 million tonnes; the rest of the world is expected show an increase of 3% to 9.6 million tonnes.
With consumption projected to remain steady, the gain in stocks is expected to be driven by a 1% increase in global production. India’s crop is expected to jump 12% to 6 million tonnes, with the USA — the world’s largest exporter — posting a 9% gain to 4.4 million tonnes.
The market has already been facing significant uncertainty due to the ongoing trade tensions between the USA and China, so the outbreak of Covid-19 only clouds the outlook further. Combined with the global economic slowdown, these developments have prompted the Secretariat to revise its current price projection to 79 cents per pound.
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Please feel free to contact the author,
Ms. Lihan Wei, with questions.