Global Stocks Expected to Drop by 1% in 2019/20 Season

 
For Immediate Release 
 
Date Posted: 2 March 2020

 
Executive Summary
 
Highlights from the March 2020 Cotton This Month include:

  • Global stocks are expected to decline for the fifth consecutive season
  • China is the only country expected to post a decline
  • Consumption is expected to be steady and production is expected to grow by 1%
  • With prices under pressure, the Secretariat’s price projection is 79 cents per pound
 
Global Stocks Expected to Drop by 1% in 2019/20 Season

For the fifth season in a row, global stocks are expected to drop in 2019/20, decreasing by 1% to 18 million tonnes. The global reduction is completely due to the 5.5% decline in China’s warehouses to 8.4 million tonnes; the rest of the world is expected show an increase of 3% to 9.6 million tonnes.

With consumption projected to remain steady, the gain in stocks is expected to be driven by a 1% increase in global production. India’s crop is expected to jump 12% to 6 million tonnes, with the USA — the world’s largest exporter — posting a 9% gain to 4.4 million tonnes.

The market has already been facing significant uncertainty due to the ongoing trade tensions between the USA and China, so the outbreak of Covid-19 only clouds the outlook further. Combined with the global economic slowdown, these developments have prompted the Secretariat to revise its current price projection to 79 cents per pound.
 


Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 April 2020. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 April 2020.
 
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Please feel free to contact the author, Ms. Lihan Wei, with questions.

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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.