News
ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents
For Immediate Release
Date Posted: 2 January 2019
Executive Summary
Highlights
from the January edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:
- The midpoint for the 2018/19 price forecast is 86.45
cents/lb, down from last month’s forecast of 89 cents
- The price forecast has a range from 75.60 cents to
100.21 cents
- The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval
- The forecast is based various assumptions,
including global consumption, ending stocks, and world trade
ICAC Revises
Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents
With a confidence interval of 95%, the
Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has set its
2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 89
cents in December 2018.
The forecast, which has a price range from a
low of 75.60 cents to a high of 100.21 cents, is based on the following
assumptions:
- World cotton consumption will
be 26.7 million tonnes.
- World cotton ending stocks will
be 18.2 million tonnes.
- World trade will be 9.4 million
tonnes.
- China’s cotton consumption will
be 8.45 million tonnes.
- Ending stocks in China will be
7.66 million tonnes, and
- China’s cotton imports will
total 1.6 million tonnes.
World
Cotton Supply and Demand
|
|
2016/17 |
2017/18 |
2018/19 |
|||||
|
|
Million Tonnes |
Change/Month |
Million Tonnes |
Change/Month |
Million Tonnes |
Change/Month |
||
|
Beginning
Stocks |
20.33 |
0.00 |
18.81 |
0.00 |
18.76 |
0.00 |
||
|
Production |
23.08 |
0.00 |
26.75 |
0.00 |
26.16 |
0.04 |
||
|
Supply |
43.41 |
0.00 |
45.57 |
0.00 |
44.92 |
0.04 |
||
|
Consumption |
24.50 |
0.00 |
26.81 |
0.00 |
26.70 |
-0.02 |
||
|
Exports |
8.18 |
0.00 |
9.00 |
0.00 |
9.42 |
0.00 |
||
|
Ending
Stocks |
18.81 |
0.00 |
18.76 |
0.00 |
18.21 |
0.05 |
||
|
ICAC Price Projections |
||||||||
|
Season-average
Cotlook A Index (US cents per pound) |
||||||||
|
Projections |
Previous Month |
This Month |
||||||
|
|
Range |
Midpoint |
Range |
Midpoint |
||||
|
2018/19* |
74-107 |
89 |
76-100 |
86 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
*The
price projection for 2018/19 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio
in the world-less-China in 2016/17 (estimate), in 2017/18 (estimate) and in 2018/19
(projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2017/18
(estimate) and 2018/19 (projection), and the average price of 2017/18. Projection reflects 95% confidence interval. |
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|
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___________________________________
About the
International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing,
consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping
member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency
to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical
information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton
issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting
market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information,
please visit www.icac.org.